Extend only the individual rate bracket cuts, not other TCJA provisions. CRS R48286 Table 1, "Reduced Individual Tax Rates": $2,159B over FY2025-2034.
Published score +$2,158.7B; this estimate is 44.3% away (unfitted reconstruction). Unfitted reconstruction, 44.3% from $2.16T (CBO) — no constant is fitted to this figure.
No out-of-sample band: no pre-registered row scores a bundle of rates, brackets, the standard deduction, the CTC, the AMT and QBI together. The 44 pre-registered Tier 1 rows are the only tier that measures this model's accuracy, and none of them scores a policy of this kind.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Deficit, conventional | Macro feedback | Debt service | Deficit, dynamic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -$265.5B | +$265.5B | +$44.6B | +$10.6B | +$231.5B |
| 2027 | -$274.8B | +$274.8B | +$49.5B | +$21.6B | +$246.9B |
| 2028 | -$284.4B | +$284.4B | +$41.5B | +$33.0B | +$275.9B |
| 2029 | -$294.4B | +$294.4B | +$31.0B | +$44.8B | +$308.2B |
| 2030 | -$304.7B | +$304.7B | +$21.8B | +$56.9B | +$339.9B |
| 2031 | -$315.3B | +$315.3B | +$14.7B | +$69.6B | +$370.2B |
| 2032 | -$326.4B | +$326.4B | +$9.7B | +$82.6B | +$399.3B |
| 2033 | -$337.8B | +$337.8B | +$6.2B | +$96.1B | +$427.7B |
| 2034 | -$349.6B | +$349.6B | +$3.9B | +$110.1B | +$455.8B |
| 2035 | -$361.8B | +$361.8B | +$2.4B | +$124.6B | +$484.0B |
| Income group | Returns | Average change | Share of income | Share of total | Paying more | Paying less | Tax rate before | Tax rate after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest Quintile | 62.8M | -$286 | -2.11% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 19.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Second Quintile | 35.4M | -$1,274 | -2.74% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 49.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% |
| Middle Quintile | 26.0M | -$2,528 | -3.45% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 71.4% | 8.3% | 5.2% |
| Fourth Quintile | 16.8M | -$5,838 | -4.77% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 95.0% | 11.2% | 6.9% |
| Top Quintile | 20.3M | -$11,497 | -3.74% | 50.6% | 0.0% | 95.0% | 20.3% | 17.3% |
Approximate bracket method: this policy cannot run through the return-level microsimulation, so read the shape as directional rather than as a validated table. Groups are ranked by adjusted gross income per return. Average change is in dollars per return; positive means the group pays more tax.
| Fiscal year | GDP level | Jobs | Unemployment | 10-year rate | GDP change, deficit | Interest, deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.637% | +408K | -0.32 pt | +0.03 pt | -$44.6B | +$10.6B |
| 2027 | +0.708% | +453K | -0.35 pt | +0.06 pt | -$49.5B | +$21.6B |
| 2028 | +0.592% | +379K | -0.30 pt | +0.09 pt | -$41.5B | +$33.0B |
| 2029 | +0.442% | +283K | -0.22 pt | +0.12 pt | -$31.0B | +$44.8B |
| 2030 | +0.311% | +199K | -0.16 pt | +0.15 pt | -$21.8B | +$56.9B |
| 2031 | +0.210% | +134K | -0.10 pt | +0.19 pt | -$14.7B | +$69.6B |
| 2032 | +0.138% | +88K | -0.07 pt | +0.22 pt | -$9.7B | +$82.6B |
| 2033 | +0.089% | +57K | -0.04 pt | +0.26 pt | -$6.2B | +$96.1B |
| 2034 | +0.056% | +36K | -0.03 pt | +0.29 pt | -$3.9B | +$110.1B |
| 2035 | +0.035% | +22K | -0.02 pt | +0.33 pt | -$2.4B | +$124.6B |
FRB/US-Lite (Federal Reserve calibrated). Demand effects fade over five to seven years as monetary policy responds; there is no supply-side channel. The dynamic score is the conventional score, plus the deficit effects of the GDP change and of interest on the debt: +$3,114.7B - $225.3B + $649.9B = +$3,539.4B.
| Model | Ten-year deficit effect | Method |
|---|---|---|
| CBO-Style | +$3,114.7B | Static + ETI behavioral response + optional FRB/US dynamic feedback |
| TPC-Microsim Pilot | Cannot score this | Full TCJA packages are multi-provision; the pilot maps only simple rate / credit / SALT reforms, not the full composite. |
No pilot model returned distributional output; the comparison is aggregate-only.
CBO-Style is the model behind the headline above. The TPC-style microsimulation is a pilot: where the two disagree, the gap tells you how much the answer depends on method. It is not an official range.
Cite asWilse-Samson, Laurence. “TCJA Rates Only.” Fiscal Policy Calculator, CBO February 2026 baseline, FY2026-2035. https://fiscal.lwilsesamson.com/explore/tcja-rates-only