Extend all TCJA individual provisions beyond 2025 sunset. Includes rate cuts, doubled standard deduction, SALT cap, pass-through deduction, CTC expansion.
Published score +$4,600.0B; this estimate is 0.4% away (calibrated reference). Calibrated to reproduce $4.60T (Congressional Budget Office) — agreement is by construction, not an independent test.
No out-of-sample band: no pre-registered row scores a bundle of rates, brackets, the standard deduction, the CTC, the AMT and QBI together. The 44 pre-registered Tier 1 rows are the only tier that measures this model's accuracy, and none of them scores a policy of this kind.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Deficit, conventional | Macro feedback | Debt service | Deficit, dynamic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -$398.3B | +$398.3B | +$65.5B | +$15.9B | +$348.6B |
| 2027 | -$410.5B | +$410.5B | +$70.9B | +$32.3B | +$371.9B |
| 2028 | -$423.1B | +$423.1B | +$57.6B | +$49.3B | +$414.8B |
| 2029 | -$436.1B | +$436.1B | +$41.5B | +$66.7B | +$461.3B |
| 2030 | -$449.5B | +$449.5B | +$28.0B | +$84.7B | +$506.2B |
| 2031 | -$463.4B | +$463.4B | +$18.0B | +$103.2B | +$548.6B |
| 2032 | -$477.7B | +$477.7B | +$11.2B | +$122.3B | +$588.8B |
| 2033 | -$492.4B | +$492.4B | +$6.7B | +$142.0B | +$627.8B |
| 2034 | -$507.7B | +$507.7B | +$3.8B | +$162.3B | +$666.2B |
| 2035 | -$523.4B | +$523.4B | +$2.1B | +$183.3B | +$704.6B |
| Income group | Returns | Average change | Share of income | Share of total | Paying more | Paying less | Tax rate before | Tax rate after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest Quintile | 62.8M | -$286 | -2.11% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 19.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Second Quintile | 35.4M | -$1,274 | -2.74% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 49.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% |
| Middle Quintile | 26.0M | -$2,528 | -3.45% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 71.4% | 8.3% | 5.2% |
| Fourth Quintile | 16.8M | -$5,838 | -4.77% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 95.0% | 11.2% | 6.9% |
| Top Quintile | 20.3M | -$11,497 | -3.74% | 50.6% | 0.0% | 95.0% | 20.3% | 17.3% |
Approximate bracket method: this policy cannot run through the return-level microsimulation, so read the shape as directional rather than as a validated table. Groups are ranked by adjusted gross income per return. Average change is in dollars per return; positive means the group pays more tax.
| Fiscal year | GDP level | Jobs | Unemployment | 10-year rate | GDP change, deficit | Interest, deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.936% | +599K | -0.47 pt | +0.04 pt | -$65.5B | +$15.9B |
| 2027 | +1.013% | +648K | -0.51 pt | +0.09 pt | -$70.9B | +$32.3B |
| 2028 | +0.822% | +526K | -0.41 pt | +0.13 pt | -$57.6B | +$49.3B |
| 2029 | +0.593% | +380K | -0.30 pt | +0.18 pt | -$41.5B | +$66.7B |
| 2030 | +0.400% | +256K | -0.20 pt | +0.23 pt | -$28.0B | +$84.7B |
| 2031 | +0.258% | +165K | -0.13 pt | +0.28 pt | -$18.0B | +$103.2B |
| 2032 | +0.160% | +102K | -0.08 pt | +0.33 pt | -$11.2B | +$122.3B |
| 2033 | +0.095% | +61K | -0.05 pt | +0.38 pt | -$6.7B | +$142.0B |
| 2034 | +0.055% | +35K | -0.03 pt | +0.43 pt | -$3.8B | +$162.3B |
| 2035 | +0.030% | +19K | -0.01 pt | +0.49 pt | -$2.1B | +$183.3B |
FRB/US-Lite (Federal Reserve calibrated). Demand effects fade over five to seven years as monetary policy responds; there is no supply-side channel. The dynamic score is the conventional score, plus the deficit effects of the GDP change and of interest on the debt: +$4,581.9B - $305.3B + $962.2B = +$5,238.8B.
| Model | Ten-year deficit effect | Method |
|---|---|---|
| CBO-Style | +$4,581.9B | Static + ETI behavioral response + optional FRB/US dynamic feedback |
| TPC-Microsim Pilot | Cannot score this | Full TCJA packages are multi-provision; the pilot maps only simple rate / credit / SALT reforms, not the full composite. |
No pilot model returned distributional output; the comparison is aggregate-only.
CBO-Style is the model behind the headline above. The TPC-style microsimulation is a pilot: where the two disagree, the gap tells you how much the answer depends on method. It is not an official range.
Cite asWilse-Samson, Laurence. “TCJA Full Extension.” Fiscal Policy Calculator, CBO February 2026 baseline, FY2026-2035. https://fiscal.lwilsesamson.com/explore/tcja-full-extension