Extend TCJA but repeal the $10K SALT cap (adds ~$1.9T to cost). Popular bipartisan proposal.
Published score +$5,700.0B; this estimate is 13.9% away (calibrated reference). Calibrated to reproduce $5.70T (CBO) — agreement is by construction, not an independent test. The target itself is this model's own estimate, not a published score.
No out-of-sample band: no pre-registered row scores a bundle of rates, brackets, the standard deduction, the CTC, the AMT and QBI together. The 44 pre-registered Tier 1 rows are the only tier that measures this model's accuracy, and none of them scores a policy of this kind.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Deficit, conventional | Macro feedback | Debt service | Deficit, dynamic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -$557.6B | +$557.6B | +$89.4B | +$22.3B | +$490.4B |
| 2027 | -$576.1B | +$576.1B | +$93.9B | +$45.3B | +$527.6B |
| 2028 | -$595.4B | +$595.4B | +$73.4B | +$69.2B | +$591.1B |
| 2029 | -$615.3B | +$615.3B | +$50.5B | +$93.8B | +$658.5B |
| 2030 | -$635.9B | +$635.9B | +$32.0B | +$119.2B | +$723.1B |
| 2031 | -$657.2B | +$657.2B | +$18.9B | +$145.5B | +$783.8B |
| 2032 | -$679.2B | +$679.2B | +$10.3B | +$172.7B | +$841.6B |
| 2033 | -$702.1B | +$702.1B | +$5.0B | +$200.7B | +$897.8B |
| 2034 | -$725.7B | +$725.7B | +$1.9B | +$229.8B | +$953.5B |
| 2035 | -$750.2B | +$750.2B | +$0.2B | +$259.8B | +$1,009.7B |
| Income group | Returns | Average change | Share of income | Share of total | Paying more | Paying less | Tax rate before | Tax rate after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest Quintile | 62.8M | -$286 | -2.11% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 19.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Second Quintile | 35.4M | -$1,274 | -2.74% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 49.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% |
| Middle Quintile | 26.0M | -$2,528 | -3.45% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 71.4% | 8.3% | 5.2% |
| Fourth Quintile | 16.8M | -$5,838 | -4.77% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 95.0% | 11.2% | 6.9% |
| Top Quintile | 20.3M | -$11,497 | -3.74% | 50.6% | 0.0% | 95.0% | 20.3% | 17.3% |
Approximate bracket method: this policy cannot run through the return-level microsimulation, so read the shape as directional rather than as a validated table. Groups are ranked by adjusted gross income per return. Average change is in dollars per return; positive means the group pays more tax.
| Fiscal year | GDP level | Jobs | Unemployment | 10-year rate | GDP change, deficit | Interest, deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +1.277% | +817K | -0.64 pt | +0.06 pt | -$89.4B | +$22.3B |
| 2027 | +1.341% | +858K | -0.67 pt | +0.12 pt | -$93.9B | +$45.3B |
| 2028 | +1.049% | +671K | -0.52 pt | +0.19 pt | -$73.4B | +$69.2B |
| 2029 | +0.722% | +462K | -0.36 pt | +0.25 pt | -$50.5B | +$93.8B |
| 2030 | +0.457% | +292K | -0.23 pt | +0.32 pt | -$32.0B | +$119.2B |
| 2031 | +0.270% | +173K | -0.13 pt | +0.39 pt | -$18.9B | +$145.5B |
| 2032 | +0.147% | +94K | -0.07 pt | +0.46 pt | -$10.3B | +$172.7B |
| 2033 | +0.072% | +46K | -0.04 pt | +0.54 pt | -$5.0B | +$200.7B |
| 2034 | +0.028% | +18K | -0.01 pt | +0.62 pt | -$1.9B | +$229.8B |
| 2035 | +0.004% | +2K | -0.00 pt | +0.70 pt | -$0.2B | +$259.8B |
FRB/US-Lite (Federal Reserve calibrated). Demand effects fade over five to seven years as monetary policy responds; there is no supply-side channel. The dynamic score is the conventional score, plus the deficit effects of the GDP change and of interest on the debt: +$6,494.5B - $375.6B + $1,358.3B = +$7,477.2B.
| Model | Ten-year deficit effect | Method |
|---|---|---|
| CBO-Style | +$6,494.5B | Static + ETI behavioral response + optional FRB/US dynamic feedback |
| TPC-Microsim Pilot | Cannot score this | Full TCJA packages are multi-provision; the pilot maps only simple rate / credit / SALT reforms, not the full composite. |
No pilot model returned distributional output; the comparison is aggregate-only.
CBO-Style is the model behind the headline above. The TPC-style microsimulation is a pilot: where the two disagree, the gap tells you how much the answer depends on method. It is not an official range.
Cite asWilse-Samson, Laurence. “TCJA Extension (No SALT Cap).” Fiscal Policy Calculator, CBO February 2026 baseline, FY2026-2035. https://fiscal.lwilsesamson.com/explore/tcja-extension-no-salt-cap