Apply SS tax to wages above $250K (donut hole). CBO's *Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2025 to 2034* Option 62 alternative 2 scores the same design at $1,427B over FY2025-2034. The model still returns $2,700B, because its covered-wage band was set from the superseded target and retuning it would hide the miss.
Published score -$1,426.8B; this estimate is 89.2% away (unfitted reconstruction). Unfitted reconstruction, 89.2% from -$1.43T (CBO) — no constant is fitted to this figure.
Typical error for this kind of policy: -$3,202.2B to -$2,197.8B, from 8 out-of-sample payroll cases.
Out-of-sample accuracy, payroll: 8 pre-registered rows miss their published scores by 18.6% on average (median 16.4%), worst 34.6% — 4 of the 8 fall inside the average. On this figure that is -$3,202.2B to -$2,197.8B typical, -$3,634.2B to -$1,765.8B at the worst row. Read off the out-of-sample tier only — not the calibrated tiers, whose agreement is by construction. It is the observed spread of this model against published scores for this class of policy, not a confidence interval.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Deficit, conventional | Macro feedback | Debt service | Deficit, dynamic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +$270.0B | -$270.0B | -$49.2B | -$10.8B | -$231.6B |
| 2027 | +$270.0B | -$270.0B | -$58.1B | -$21.6B | -$233.5B |
| 2028 | +$270.0B | -$270.0B | -$51.8B | -$32.4B | -$250.6B |
| 2029 | +$270.0B | -$270.0B | -$41.2B | -$43.2B | -$272.0B |
| 2030 | +$270.0B | -$270.0B | -$30.9B | -$54.0B | -$293.1B |
| 2031 | +$270.0B | -$270.0B | -$22.4B | -$64.8B | -$312.4B |
| 2032 | +$270.0B | -$270.0B | -$15.9B | -$75.6B | -$329.7B |
| 2033 | +$270.0B | -$270.0B | -$11.0B | -$86.4B | -$345.4B |
| 2034 | +$270.0B | -$270.0B | -$7.6B | -$97.2B | -$359.6B |
| 2035 | +$270.0B | -$270.0B | -$5.2B | -$108.0B | -$372.8B |
| Income group | Returns | Average change | Share of income | Share of total | Paying more | Paying less | Tax rate before | Tax rate after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest Quintile | 62.8M | $0 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Second Quintile | 35.4M | $0 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Middle Quintile | 26.0M | $0 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Fourth Quintile | 16.8M | $0 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| Top Quintile | 20.3M | +$103,757 | 4.13% | 100.0% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 20.3% | 23.6% |
Approximate bracket method: this policy cannot run through the return-level microsimulation, so read the shape as directional rather than as a validated table. Groups are ranked by adjusted gross income per return. Average change is in dollars per return; positive means the group pays more tax.
| Fiscal year | GDP level | Jobs | Unemployment | 10-year rate | GDP change, deficit | Interest, deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.702% | -449K | +0.35 pt | -0.03 pt | +$49.2B | -$10.8B |
| 2027 | -0.830% | -531K | +0.42 pt | -0.06 pt | +$58.1B | -$21.6B |
| 2028 | -0.740% | -473K | +0.37 pt | -0.09 pt | +$51.8B | -$32.4B |
| 2029 | -0.589% | -377K | +0.29 pt | -0.12 pt | +$41.2B | -$43.2B |
| 2030 | -0.442% | -283K | +0.22 pt | -0.14 pt | +$30.9B | -$54.0B |
| 2031 | -0.320% | -205K | +0.16 pt | -0.17 pt | +$22.4B | -$64.8B |
| 2032 | -0.226% | -145K | +0.11 pt | -0.20 pt | +$15.9B | -$75.6B |
| 2033 | -0.158% | -101K | +0.08 pt | -0.23 pt | +$11.0B | -$86.4B |
| 2034 | -0.109% | -69K | +0.05 pt | -0.26 pt | +$7.6B | -$97.2B |
| 2035 | -0.074% | -47K | +0.04 pt | -0.29 pt | +$5.2B | -$108.0B |
FRB/US-Lite (Federal Reserve calibrated). Demand effects fade over five to seven years as monetary policy responds; there is no supply-side channel. The dynamic score is the conventional score, plus the deficit effects of the GDP change and of interest on the debt: -$2,700.0B + $293.3B - $594.0B = -$3,000.7B.
| Model | Ten-year deficit effect | Method |
|---|---|---|
| CBO-Style | -$2,700.0B | Static + ETI behavioral response + optional FRB/US dynamic feedback |
| TPC-Microsim Pilot | Cannot score this | OASDI wage-cap / donut-hole reforms are not in the microsim tax calculator (NIIT-only payroll edges may map in a later sprint). |
No pilot model returned distributional output; the comparison is aggregate-only.
CBO-Style is the model behind the headline above. The TPC-style microsimulation is a pilot: where the two disagree, the gap tells you how much the answer depends on method. It is not an official range.
Cite asWilse-Samson, Laurence. “SS Donut Hole $250K.” Fiscal Policy Calculator, CBO February 2026 baseline, FY2026-2035. https://fiscal.lwilsesamson.com/explore/ss-donut-250k