FY2026-2035 · CBO February 2026 baseline

SS Cap to 90%

Raise Social Security cap to cover 90% of wages (~$305K). Raises ~$800B.

Ten-year deficit effect, conventional-$800.0Breduces the deficit

With macroeconomic feedback and debt service-$896.8BFRB/US-Lite (Federal Reserve calibrated)

Checked against

Published score -$800.0B; this estimate is 0.0% away (calibrated reference). Calibrated to reproduce -$800B (CBO) — agreement is by construction, not an independent test.

Typical error for this kind of policy: -$948.8B to -$651.2B, from 8 out-of-sample payroll cases.

Out-of-sample accuracy, payroll: 8 pre-registered rows miss their published scores by 18.6% on average (median 16.4%), worst 34.6% — 4 of the 8 fall inside the average. On this figure that is -$948.8B to -$651.2B typical, -$1,076.8B to -$523.2B at the worst row. Read off the out-of-sample tier only — not the calibrated tiers, whose agreement is by construction. It is the observed spread of this model against published scores for this class of policy, not a confidence interval.

Year by year

billions, conventional

Fiscal year	Revenue	Deficit, conventional	Macro feedback	Debt service	Deficit, dynamic
2026	+$80.0B	-$80.0B	-$14.2B	-$3.2B	-$69.0B
2027	+$80.0B	-$80.0B	-$16.3B	-$6.4B	-$70.1B
2028	+$80.0B	-$80.0B	-$14.2B	-$9.6B	-$75.4B
2029	+$80.0B	-$80.0B	-$11.0B	-$12.8B	-$81.8B
2030	+$80.0B	-$80.0B	-$8.1B	-$16.0B	-$87.9B
2031	+$80.0B	-$80.0B	-$5.7B	-$19.2B	-$93.5B
2032	+$80.0B	-$80.0B	-$4.0B	-$22.4B	-$98.4B
2033	+$80.0B	-$80.0B	-$2.7B	-$25.6B	-$102.9B
2034	+$80.0B	-$80.0B	-$1.8B	-$28.8B	-$107.0B
2035	+$80.0B	-$80.0B	-$1.2B	-$32.0B	-$110.8B

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Who pays

first year, by income group

Total tax change, 2026+$68.3Bpeople pay more

Returns paying more7.7%

Returns paying less0.0%

Income group	Returns	Average change	Share of income	Share of total	Paying more	Paying less	Tax rate before	Tax rate after
Lowest Quintile	62.8M	$0	0.00%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.6%	2.6%
Second Quintile	35.4M	$0	0.00%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.8%	5.8%
Middle Quintile	26.0M	$0	0.00%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	8.3%	8.3%
Fourth Quintile	16.8M	$0	0.00%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	11.2%	11.2%
Top Quintile	20.3M	+$5,461	1.10%	100.0%	61.7%	0.0%	20.3%	21.2%

Approximate bracket method: this policy cannot run through the return-level microsimulation, so read the shape as directional rather than as a validated table. Groups are ranked by adjusted gross income per return. Average change is in dollars per return; positive means the group pays more tax.

Economic effects

difference from the CBO baseline

GDP, summed over the window-1.13percent-years

Jobs at the largest effect-149K

Deficit effect of the GDP change+$79.2Bless tax collected

Deficit effect of interest on the debt-$176.0Bless debt, less interest

Fiscal year	GDP level	Jobs	Unemployment	10-year rate	GDP change, deficit	Interest, deficit
2026	-0.202%	-130K	+0.10 pt	-0.01 pt	+$14.2B	-$3.2B
2027	-0.233%	-149K	+0.12 pt	-0.02 pt	+$16.3B	-$6.4B
2028	-0.202%	-130K	+0.10 pt	-0.03 pt	+$14.2B	-$9.6B
2029	-0.157%	-101K	+0.08 pt	-0.03 pt	+$11.0B	-$12.8B
2030	-0.115%	-74K	+0.06 pt	-0.04 pt	+$8.1B	-$16.0B
2031	-0.082%	-52K	+0.04 pt	-0.05 pt	+$5.7B	-$19.2B
2032	-0.057%	-36K	+0.03 pt	-0.06 pt	+$4.0B	-$22.4B
2033	-0.039%	-25K	+0.02 pt	-0.07 pt	+$2.7B	-$25.6B
2034	-0.026%	-17K	+0.01 pt	-0.08 pt	+$1.8B	-$28.8B
2035	-0.018%	-11K	+0.01 pt	-0.09 pt	+$1.2B	-$32.0B

FRB/US-Lite (Federal Reserve calibrated). Demand effects fade over five to seven years as monetary policy responds; there is no supply-side channel. The dynamic score is the conventional score, plus the deficit effects of the GDP change and of interest on the debt: -$800.0B + $79.2B - $176.0B = -$896.8B.

Other scoring models

exploratory

Model	Ten-year deficit effect	Method
CBO-Style	-$800.0B	Static + ETI behavioral response + optional FRB/US dynamic feedback
TPC-Microsim Pilot	Cannot score this	OASDI wage-cap / donut-hole reforms are not in the microsim tax calculator (NIIT-only payroll edges may map in a later sprint).

No pilot model returned distributional output; the comparison is aggregate-only.

CBO-Style is the model behind the headline above. The TPC-style microsimulation is a pilot: where the two disagree, the gap tells you how much the answer depends on method. It is not an official range.

Limitations

holdout labels follow the locked post-2026-05-02 regression protocol; they are not retroactive historical out-of-sample claims.
Covered-wage bands are SSA-aligned aggregates, not worker-level SSA earnings records.
Benefit-offset and taxable-benefit interactions are simplified relative to Trustees methodology.
Target revised (target_revisions.ss_donut_250k.v2) from an untraceable -$2,700B to CBO Option 62 alternative 2's -$1,426.8B, 47% below it. The module's covered-wage band is still `2_177.0 # 270 / 0.124` -- the superseded target divided by ten and by the statutory rate -- so the 89% this row now reports is the size of the old target's error, not a new modelling defect. Retuning the band to the new figure is forbidden: it would convert a finding back into bookkeeping.
Two wedges between CBO's figure and this module's, both stated rather than adjusted. CBO's table note reads 'An offset to reflect reduced income and payroll taxes has been applied to the estimates in this table' and the payroll module has no income-tax offset channel; and CBO's annual path ramps $122.0B (2026) to $192.0B (2034) as the taxable maximum grows toward $250,000, where `create_ss_donut_hole` stamps a flat annual.
Pass-through income exposure is modeled with simplified aggregate distributions rather than return-level business-owner data.

Cite asWilse-Samson, Laurence. “SS Cap to 90%.” Fiscal Policy Calculator, CBO February 2026 baseline, FY2026-2035. https://fiscal.lwilsesamson.com/explore/ss-cap-90pct