Repeal federal estate tax entirely. Tax Foundation's *Options 3.0* Option 83 puts it at $407B over CY2027-2036 -- a row that repeals the estate **and gift** taxes, so it is the broader of the two.
Published score +$407.2B; this estimate is 14.0% away (unfitted reconstruction). Unfitted reconstruction, 14.0% from $407B (Tax Foundation) — no constant is fitted to this figure.
No out-of-sample band: no pre-registered row scores an estate-tax reform. The 44 pre-registered Tier 1 rows are the only tier that measures this model's accuracy, and none of them scores a policy of this kind.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Deficit, conventional | Macro feedback | Debt service | Deficit, dynamic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -$35.0B | +$35.0B | +$6.1B | +$1.4B | +$30.3B |
| 2027 | -$35.0B | +$35.0B | +$6.9B | +$2.8B | +$30.9B |
| 2028 | -$35.0B | +$35.0B | +$5.9B | +$4.2B | +$33.3B |
| 2029 | -$35.0B | +$35.0B | +$4.5B | +$5.6B | +$36.1B |
| 2030 | -$35.0B | +$35.0B | +$3.2B | +$7.0B | +$38.8B |
| 2031 | -$35.0B | +$35.0B | +$2.3B | +$8.4B | +$41.1B |
| 2032 | -$35.0B | +$35.0B | +$1.5B | +$9.8B | +$43.3B |
| 2033 | -$35.0B | +$35.0B | +$1.0B | +$11.2B | +$45.2B |
| 2034 | -$35.0B | +$35.0B | +$0.7B | +$12.6B | +$46.9B |
| 2035 | -$35.0B | +$35.0B | +$0.5B | +$14.0B | +$48.5B |
The distribution engine cannot yet represent this kind of policy household by household (for example estate tax, tariffs, international or enforcement provisions). An all-zero table would look flat and be wrong, so none is shown.
| Fiscal year | GDP level | Jobs | Unemployment | 10-year rate | GDP change, deficit | Interest, deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.087% | +56K | -0.04 pt | +0.00 pt | -$6.1B | +$1.4B |
| 2027 | +0.098% | +63K | -0.05 pt | +0.01 pt | -$6.9B | +$2.8B |
| 2028 | +0.084% | +54K | -0.04 pt | +0.01 pt | -$5.9B | +$4.2B |
| 2029 | +0.064% | +41K | -0.03 pt | +0.01 pt | -$4.5B | +$5.6B |
| 2030 | +0.046% | +30K | -0.02 pt | +0.02 pt | -$3.2B | +$7.0B |
| 2031 | +0.032% | +21K | -0.02 pt | +0.02 pt | -$2.3B | +$8.4B |
| 2032 | +0.022% | +14K | -0.01 pt | +0.03 pt | -$1.5B | +$9.8B |
| 2033 | +0.015% | +9K | -0.01 pt | +0.03 pt | -$1.0B | +$11.2B |
| 2034 | +0.010% | +6K | -0.00 pt | +0.03 pt | -$0.7B | +$12.6B |
| 2035 | +0.006% | +4K | -0.00 pt | +0.04 pt | -$0.5B | +$14.0B |
FRB/US-Lite (Federal Reserve calibrated). Demand effects fade over five to seven years as monetary policy responds; there is no supply-side channel. The dynamic score is the conventional score, plus the deficit effects of the GDP change and of interest on the debt: +$350.0B - $32.6B + $77.0B = +$394.4B.
| Model | Ten-year deficit effect | Method |
|---|---|---|
| CBO-Style | +$350.0B | Static + ETI behavioral response + optional FRB/US dynamic feedback |
| TPC-Microsim Pilot | Cannot score this | Estate and gift tax are outside the individual income microsim. |
No pilot model returned distributional output; the comparison is aggregate-only.
CBO-Style is the model behind the headline above. The TPC-style microsimulation is a pilot: where the two disagree, the gap tells you how much the answer depends on method. It is not an official range.
Cite asWilse-Samson, Laurence. “Eliminate Estate Tax.” Fiscal Policy Calculator, CBO February 2026 baseline, FY2026-2035. https://fiscal.lwilsesamson.com/explore/estate-repeal