Keep ~$14M exemption (vs $6.4M if TCJA expires). Costs ~$167B over 10 years.
Published score +$167.0B; this estimate is 0.0% away (calibrated reference). Calibrated to reproduce $167B (CBO) — agreement is by construction, not an independent test.
No out-of-sample band: no pre-registered row scores an estate-tax reform. The 44 pre-registered Tier 1 rows are the only tier that measures this model's accuracy, and none of them scores a policy of this kind.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Deficit, conventional | Macro feedback | Debt service | Deficit, dynamic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -$16.7B | +$16.7B | +$2.9B | +$0.7B | +$14.5B |
| 2027 | -$16.7B | +$16.7B | +$3.3B | +$1.3B | +$14.7B |
| 2028 | -$16.7B | +$16.7B | +$2.8B | +$2.0B | +$15.9B |
| 2029 | -$16.7B | +$16.7B | +$2.2B | +$2.7B | +$17.2B |
| 2030 | -$16.7B | +$16.7B | +$1.6B | +$3.3B | +$18.5B |
| 2031 | -$16.7B | +$16.7B | +$1.1B | +$4.0B | +$19.6B |
| 2032 | -$16.7B | +$16.7B | +$0.8B | +$4.7B | +$20.6B |
| 2033 | -$16.7B | +$16.7B | +$0.5B | +$5.3B | +$21.5B |
| 2034 | -$16.7B | +$16.7B | +$0.3B | +$6.0B | +$22.4B |
| 2035 | -$16.7B | +$16.7B | +$0.2B | +$6.7B | +$23.2B |
The distribution engine cannot yet represent this kind of policy household by household (for example estate tax, tariffs, international or enforcement provisions). An all-zero table would look flat and be wrong, so none is shown.
| Fiscal year | GDP level | Jobs | Unemployment | 10-year rate | GDP change, deficit | Interest, deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.042% | +27K | -0.02 pt | +0.00 pt | -$2.9B | +$0.7B |
| 2027 | +0.047% | +30K | -0.02 pt | +0.00 pt | -$3.3B | +$1.3B |
| 2028 | +0.040% | +26K | -0.02 pt | +0.01 pt | -$2.8B | +$2.0B |
| 2029 | +0.031% | +20K | -0.02 pt | +0.01 pt | -$2.2B | +$2.7B |
| 2030 | +0.022% | +14K | -0.01 pt | +0.01 pt | -$1.6B | +$3.3B |
| 2031 | +0.016% | +10K | -0.01 pt | +0.01 pt | -$1.1B | +$4.0B |
| 2032 | +0.011% | +7K | -0.01 pt | +0.01 pt | -$0.8B | +$4.7B |
| 2033 | +0.007% | +5K | -0.00 pt | +0.01 pt | -$0.5B | +$5.3B |
| 2034 | +0.005% | +3K | -0.00 pt | +0.02 pt | -$0.3B | +$6.0B |
| 2035 | +0.003% | +2K | -0.00 pt | +0.02 pt | -$0.2B | +$6.7B |
FRB/US-Lite (Federal Reserve calibrated). Demand effects fade over five to seven years as monetary policy responds; there is no supply-side channel. The dynamic score is the conventional score, plus the deficit effects of the GDP change and of interest on the debt: +$167.0B - $15.7B + $36.7B = +$188.0B.
| Model | Ten-year deficit effect | Method |
|---|---|---|
| CBO-Style | +$167.0B | Static + ETI behavioral response + optional FRB/US dynamic feedback |
| TPC-Microsim Pilot | Cannot score this | Estate and gift tax are outside the individual income microsim. |
No pilot model returned distributional output; the comparison is aggregate-only.
CBO-Style is the model behind the headline above. The TPC-style microsimulation is a pilot: where the two disagree, the gap tells you how much the answer depends on method. It is not an official range.
Cite asWilse-Samson, Laurence. “Estate Tax: Extend TCJA.” Fiscal Policy Calculator, CBO February 2026 baseline, FY2026-2035. https://fiscal.lwilsesamson.com/explore/estate-extend-tcja